Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Nears $4,100 as Traders Await FOMC Minutes and NFP Data

Gold prices continued to advance on Wednesday, extending the previous day’s recovery and moving closer to the $4,100 level. The precious metal rebounded strongly after dipping below the $4,000 psychological mark, its lowest point in nearly two weeks. With safe-haven demand rising and the US Dollar losing some momentum, traders are closely watching whether XAU/USD can secure a sustained break above the $4,100 resistance zone.

The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes is expected to provide fresh direction for the gold market, making it a key focus for traders this week.

Gold Supported by Safe-Haven Flows and Softer US Dollar

Lingering concerns over the US economy, amplified by the prolonged government shutdown, have pressured market sentiment and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. At the same time, the USD has struggled to extend last week’s gains, allowing XAU/USD to regain ground.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support the gold price today. Ukraine confirmed the use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles in strikes on Russian military targets, while President Volodymyr Zelenskiy prepares to travel to Turkey to revive stalled peace discussions. The Kremlin has stated that Russia will not participate, keeping geopolitical risks elevated and maintaining interest in precious metals.

Fed Policy Expectations in Focus as Key Data Approaches

The US Dollar remains near a one-week high but lacks strong bullish momentum as markets weigh mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials:

• Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized a cautious approach to monetary easing.
• Governor Christopher Waller continued to highlight the need for further rate cuts due to hiring concerns.

Recent labor data shows a softening employment landscape, with continuing jobless claims rising to 1.957 million for the week ending October 18. This reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain flexible with its rate-cut path.

Traders now shift their attention to:

• FOMC minutes – due later today
• Delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report – scheduled for Thursday

Both releases are likely to influence the US Dollar and provide clearer direction for Gold and XAU/USD.

XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Can Gold Break Above $4,100?

Gold’s recovery gained strength after finding support at the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart. While the rebound is encouraging for bulls, mixed technical indicators suggest caution until a sustained breakout occurs.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance Levels

• $4,100 – Major near-term barrier; a break could trigger short covering
• $4,152–$4,155 – Intermediate resistance
• $4,200 – Next key target if bullish momentum accelerates

Support Levels

• $4,037–$4,036 – Initial support zone
• $4,000 – Critical psychological level and EMA support
• $3,931 – Secondary support
• $3,900 to $3,886 – Potential downside targets if selling pressure increases

A decisive move above $4,100 could shift market sentiment firmly in favor of bulls, while a failure to hold above $4,000 may increase the risk of a deeper pullback.

Conclusion: Gold Traders Await Key Catalysts

The push of Gold toward $4,100 reflects a combination of safe-haven demand, USD weakness, and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. With the FOMC minutes and NFP report set to shape market sentiment, traders should expect heightened volatility in XAU/USD and the gold market in the near term.